True Count

The true count is a refinement of the running count in card counting, adjusted for the number of decks remaining to be dealt. It provides a more accurate measure of the player's advantage or disadvantage and is essential for proper bet sizing in multi-deck games.

To calculate the true count, divide the running count by the estimated number of decks remaining. If the running count is +8 and you estimate there are 4 decks left in the shoe, the true count is +2. This normalization is necessary because a running count of +8 is far more significant with 2 decks remaining (true count +4) than with 6 decks remaining (true count +1.3).

The true count directly determines the player's edge. In a typical 6-deck game with standard rules, the player has an edge when the true count reaches +2 or higher. Each additional true count point adds approximately 0.5% to the player's advantage. At a true count of +5, the player might have a 2% edge over the house.

Bet sizing is based on the true count. Counters use a bet spread, such as 1 to 12 units, where the minimum bet is placed at negative or neutral counts and the maximum bet at high positive counts. A common approach is to bet (true count minus 1) units. At a true count of +3, you would bet 2 units; at +5, you would bet 4 units. Accurate true count estimation requires practice, particularly estimating the number of remaining decks by observing the discard tray.